Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR

Authors

  • Leandro Canezin Guideli Federal University of Paraná, Paraná – Brazil
  • André Lucas dos Reis Cuenca Federal University of Paraná, Paraná – Brazil
  • Milena Arruda Silva Federal University of Paraná, Paraná – Brazil
  • Larissa de Brum Passini Federal University of Paraná, Paraná – Brazil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v29i4.2498

Keywords:

Traffic Crashes , Precipitation, Negative Binomial, Serra do Mar

Abstract

Recent studies analyze the influence of rainfall on traffic crashes, indicating that precipitation intensity is an important factor, for modeling crashes occurrence. This research presents a relationship between daily-basis traffic crashes and precipitation, from 2014 to 2018, in a rural mountainous Brazilian Highway (BR-376/PR), where field rain gauges were used to obtain precipitation data. Data modeling considered a Negative Binomial regression for precipitation influence in crash frequency. Separate regression models were estimated to account for the rainfall effect in different seasons, and for different vehicle types. All models analyzed presented a positive relationship between daily rainfall intensity and daily crashes number. This can indicate that generally rainfall presence is a hazardous factor. Different critical seasons for rainfall influence were also highlighted, alerting for the possible necessity of distinct road safety policies concerning seasonality. Finally, for the vehicle type analysis, typically, rainfall seemed to have a greater effect in lighter vehicles. Moreover, results are useful for traffic control, in order to increase safety conditions.

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Published

2021-12-02

How to Cite

Guideli, L. C. ., Cuenca, A. L. dos R. ., Arruda Silva, M., & Passini, L. de B. . (2021). Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR . TRANSPORTES, 29(3), 2498. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v29i4.2498

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