Assessment of the impact of electronic speed and red-light camera enforcement on road safety: a before-and-after study using the Empirical Bayes Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v33.e3040Keywords:
Road safety. Empirical bayes method. Universal kriging. Before-and-after studies.Abstract
Automated enforcement strategies are commonly employed at signalized intersections to minimize traffic incidents. The actual impact of these strategies can vary between jurisdictions and lacks observational studies that address methodological challenges such as the regression-to-the-mean phenomenon and the time limitation of the observed period. This study evaluates the effects of electronic speed and red-light enforcement at signalized intersections on road safety performance using the Empirical Bayes (EB) Method. Using a total analysis period from 2010 to 2019, a Safety Performance Function (SPF) was developed for crashes with victims in 2011 based on vehicle flow (AADT) and the number of lanes, using a sample of 176 intersections in Fortaleza. The SPF (2011) was transferred to the other years of the analysis by adjusting the intercept correction obtained using the method proposed in the Highway Safety Manual. The results indicated a 21% reduction (8%, 33%; CI=95%) in crashes with injured and fatal victims, similar to the findings from using a comparison group and slightly better than those found in the international literature. The results and the application of the methodology help reinforce the effectiveness of installing enforcement devices at signalized intersections and contribute to improving ‘before-and-after’ observational studies in the Brazilian context.
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