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Authors

  • Marcos José Timbó Lima Gomes Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Caio Assunção Torres Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Francisco Moraes de Oliveira Neto Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Flávio José Craveiro Cunto Universidade Federal do Ceará

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v23i4.927

Keywords:

road safety modeling, generalized linear models, spatial auto-correlation.

Abstract

This study presents an exploratory analysis of the variables that may contribute to modeling of road safety at the strategic and tactical planning level. At first, a geographic database of 126 traffic zones is compiled from available socioeconomic datasets, roadway data and geocoded accidents. Aiming to correctly partial out the effects of each variable on accident frequency, the analysis comprises: i) a phenomenological and correlation analysis that yielded a reduced set of predictor variables, and ii) a Negative Binomial regression analysis that identified the significant predictors. Given the spatial nature of geographic data, the assumption of spatial independence between model errors is analyzed. The results confirmed that accidents are related to income and economic activity, at strategic level, and physical and operation attributes of the roadway system, at the tactical level. The evidence of spatial dependence at the strategic level points to directions for further work.

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Published

2015-11-09

How to Cite

Gomes, M. J. T. L., Torres, C. A., Oliveira Neto, F. M. de, & Cunto, F. J. C. (2015). . Transportes, 23(4), 42–50. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v23i4.927

Issue

Vol. 23 No. 4 (2015): Prêmio ANPET de Produção Científica 2014

Section

Prêmio ANPET de Produção Científica winners

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