Estudo dos efeitos de aumentos no custo do combustível na demanda por transporte aéreo doméstico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v22i3.810Keywords:
Jet fuel. Airline. Cost. Demand.Abstract
A permanent shock in the cost of companies, when passed through to consumers by price transmission, may affect their behavior in the market and create potential damage to economic welfare. This paper investigates this phenomenon in the airline industry, where fuel costs account for a significant portion of total operating costs. We assessed the impact on demand for domestic travel of simulated increases in airline fuel costs and the resulting pass-through to prices. Our study develops an econometric model of demand and creates counterfactual scenarios for an economic welfare analysis. We employed an instrumental variables estimator in our econometric demand modelling. Results indicated that an increase of fifty percent in fuel costs, along with a change of conduct of firms towards duopoly behavior, would cause losses of nearly forty percent in the economic welfare of consumers.Downloads
References
ANAC (2013) Tarifas aéreas domésticas - 1˚ Semestre de 2013 (29ª ed.). Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil.
Angrist, J. D. e J.-S. Pischke (2009) Mostly Harmless Econo-metrics – An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton University Press. DOI: 10.1057/be.2009.37.
Basso, L. J. e A. Zhang (2008) On the Relationship between Airport Pricing Models. Transportation Research Part B, v. 42, n. 9, p. 725-735. DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2008.01.005.
Chao, C. - C. e C. – W. Hsu (2014) Cost Analysis of Air Cargo Transport and Effects of Fluctuations in Fuel Price. Journal of Air Transport Management, v. 35, p. 51-56. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.11.010.
Hsu, C. – I. e W. – Y. Eie (2013) Airline Network Design and Adjustment in Response to Fluctuation in Jet Fuel Prices. Ma-
thematical and Computer Modelling, v. 58, p. 1791-1803. DOI: 10.1016/j.mcm.2013.04.005.
Infraero, Empresa Brasileira de Infraestrutura Aeroportuária, 2014. < http://www.infraero.com.br/images/stories/Estatistica/2013/dez.pdf> (Fevereiro, 2014).
IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 2014. < http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/> (Fevereiro, 2014)
Ipeadata, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, 2014 < http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/> (Fevereiro, 2014)
Lim, S. H. e Y. Hong (2014) Fuel Hedging and Airline Operat-ing Costs. Journal of Air Transport Management, v. 36, p. 33-40. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.12.009.
Lu, C.-C. e R. I. Pagliari (2004) Evaluating the Potential Impact of Alternative Airport Pricing Approaches on Social Welfare. Transportation Research Part E, v. 40, n. 1, p. 1-17. DOI: 10.1016/S1366-5545(03)00031-0.
Mátyás, L. e P. Sevestre (2008) The Econometrics of Panel Data (3º ed.). Springer.
Pindyck, R. S. e D. L. Rubinfeld (2013) Microeconomics (8º ed.). Pearson.
Póvoa, H. e A. V. M. Oliveira (2013) Econometric analysis to estimate the impact of holidays on airfares. Journal of Transport Literature, v. 7, n. 2, p. 284-296. DOI: 10.1590/S2238-10312013000200015.
McKinsey&Company (2010) Estudo do Setor de Transporte Aéreo do Brasil: relatório consolidado. Rio de Janeiro.
Ryerson, M. S. e M. Hansen (2013) Capturing the Impact of Fuel Price on Jet Aircraft Operating Costs with Leontief Tech-nology and Econometric Models. Transportation Research Part C, v. 33, p. 282-296. DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2011.05.015.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2012) Introductory Econometrics – A Mod-ern Approach (2º ed.) CENGAGE Learning.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who submit papers for publication by TRANSPORTES agree to the following terms:
- The authors retain the copyright and grant Transportes the right of first publication of the manuscript, without any financial charge, and waive any other remuneration for its publication by ANPET.
- Upon publication by Transportes, the manuscript is automatically licensed under the Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0 license. This license permits the work to be shared with proper attribution to the authors and its original publication in this journal.
- Authors are authorized to enter into additional separate contracts for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the manuscript published in this journal (e.g., publishing in an institutional repository or as a book chapter), with recognition of the initial publication in this journal, provided that such a contract does not imply an endorsement of the content of the manuscript or the new medium by ANPET.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to publish and distribute their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their personal websites) after the editorial process is complete. As Transportes provides open access to all published issues, authors are encouraged to use links to the DOI of their article in these cases.
- Authors guarantee that they have obtained the necessary authorization from their employers for the transfer of rights under this agreement, if these employers hold any copyright over the manuscript. Additionally, authors assume all responsibility for any copyright infringements by these employers, releasing ANPET and Transportes from any responsibility in this regard.
- Authors assume full responsibility for the content of the manuscript, including the necessary and appropriate authorizations for the disclosure of collected data and obtained results, releasing ANPET and Transportes from any responsibility in this regard.
