Freight trip generation to buildings under construction: a comparative analysis with linear regression and generalised linear regression
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v28i5.1885Keywords:
Freight trip generation model. Buildings under construction. Linear regression. Generalised linear regression. Comparative analysis.Abstract
Estimating the number of trips generated by a company is an essential part of the process of freight demand modelling. In this context, the current study examines freight trip generation to buildings under construction (BUC) using generalised linear regression and linear regression, through a case study to Belo Horizonte. The main contributions of this paper are related to the models to estimate freight trips to BUC, the verification of the linearity assumptions of the linear models and the comparison of different modelling techniques for the freight trip generation models. Linearity assumptions verified the reliability of the results of the linear regression models. Results indicate that the models with the best accuracy in predicting freight trips to the BUC are the linear models that use the area as an explanatory variable.
Downloads
References
Aditjandra, P.T., Galatioto, F., Bell, M.C., and T.H. Zunder (2016) Evaluating the impacts of urban freight traffic: application of micro-simulation at a large establishment. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, v.16, n.1, p.4-22. https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2016.16.1.3110
Akaike, H. (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, v.19, n.6, p.716-723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2014a) Freight-Trip Generation Model: Predicting Urban Freight Weekly Parking Demand from Retail Establishment Characteristics. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2411, p.45-54. https://doi.org/10.3141/2411-06
Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2014b) The Development and Application of an Establishment-based Freight Survey: revealing retail establishments’ characteristics, goods ordering and delivery processes for the city of Lisbon. In TRB 2014 Annual Meeting, Washington, US.
Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2015) Lisbon’s Establishment-based Freight Survey: revealing retail establishments’ characteristics, goods ordering and delivery processes. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev., v.7, n.16, p. 1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-015-0163-7
Alho, A.R. and J.A. Silva (2017) Modeling retail establishments’ freight trip generation: a comparison of methodologies to predict total weekly deliveries. Transportation, v.44, p.1195-1212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9670-6
Arlot, S. and A. Celise (2010) A survey of cross-validation procedures for model selection. Statistics Survey, v.10, p.40-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-ss054
Belo Horizonte (2018) Relatório de projetos de edificações aprovados. https://prefeitura.pbh.gov.br/politica-urbana/regulacao-urbana/relatorios/edificacoes
Boarnet, M.G., Hong, A., and R. Santiago-Bartolomei (2017) Urban spatial structure, employment subcenters, and freight travel. Journal of Transport Geography, v.60, p.267-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.03.007
Breusch, T.S. and A.R. Pagan (1979) A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, v.47, n.5, p.1287-1294. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1911963
Burnham, K.P. and D.R. Anderson (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretical Approach. Springer: New York.
Campbel, S., Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Holguín-Veras, J., and C.T. Lawson (2012) Comparison between industrial classification systems in freight trip generation (FTG) modeling. In 91rd TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, US.
Campos, V.B.G. and I.C.B. Melo (2004) Análysis de la demanda de transporte de carga en area urbana bajo el punto de vista de la production y de la atracción de viajes. In VI Congreso de Ingenieria del Transporte, Zaragoza, Spain.
Campos, V.B.G., D’Agosto, M.A., Cruz, I., and C.D. Souza (2012) Polos Geradores de Viagens de Carga. In: Portugal, L. S. (Org.) Polos Geradores de Viagens Orientados a Qualidade de Vida e Ambiental: Modelos e Taxas de Geração de Viagens. Inter-ciência: Rio de Janeiro.
Canty, A. and B. Ripley (2017) boot: Bootstrap Functions. Disponível em https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=boot
CBIC (2018) PIB Brasil e Construção Civil. Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção. Data from August of 2018. http://www.cbicdados.com.br/menu/pib-e-investimento/pib-brasil-e-construcao-civil
Comi, A., Site, P.D., Fillipi, F., and A. Nuzzolo (2012) Urban Freight Transport Demand Modelling: a State of the Art. European Transport Trasporti Europei, v.51, n.7.
Davison, A.C. (2001) Biometrika Centenary: Theory and General Methodology. Biometrika, v.88, p.13-52. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/88.1.13
EuroStat (2018) Construction production (volume) index overview. Data from March 2018. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Construction_production_(volume)_index_overview
Ferreira, B.L.G. and M.A.V. Silva (2016) Truck trips in urban areas and its relation to socioeconomic variables. Revista Gestão da Produção Operações e Sistemas, v.11, n.4, p.197-212. https://doi.org/10.15675/gepros.v11i4.1566
Frasco, M. (2018) Package ‘Metrics”: Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Metrics/Metrics.pdf
Gasparini, A., Campos, V.B.G., and M.A. D’Agosto (2010) Modelos para estimativa da demanda de viagens de veículos de carga para supermercados e shopping-centers Transportes, v.18, n.1, p.58-65. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v18i1.388
Gonçalves, F.S., Lemos, D.S.C.P.S., Kneib, E.C., and L.S. Portugal (2012) Caracterização dos Polos Geradores de Viagens. In: Portugal, L. S. (Org.). Polos Geradores de Viagens Orientados a Qualidade de Vida e Ambiental: Modelos e Taxas de Geração de Viagens. Interciência: Rio de Janeiro, p. 3-41.
González-Feliu, J. and C. Peris-Plab (2017) Impacts of retailing attractiveness on freight and shopping trip attraction rates. Research in Transportation Business & Management, v.24, p.49-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.07.004
González-Feliu, J., Sánchez-Díaz, I., and C. Ambrosini (2015) Aggregation level, variability and linear hypotheses for urban delivery generation models. In Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting, Washington.
Günay, G., Ergün, G., and I. Gökaşar (2016) Conditional Freight Trip Generation modeling. Journal of Transport Geography, v.54, p.102-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.05.013
Holguín-Veras, J., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Lawson, C.T., Jaller, M., Campbell, S., Levinson, H.S., and H.-S. Shin (2013) Transferability of Freight Trip Generation Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2379, p.1-8. https://doi.org/10.3141/2379-01
Holguín-Veras, J., Jaller, M., Destro, L., Ban, S., Lawson, C., and H.S. Levinson (2011) Freight Generation, Freight Trip Genera-tion, and Perils of Using Constant Trip Rates. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2224, p.68-81. https://doi.org/10.3141/2224-09
Hothorn, T., Zeileis, A., Farebrother, R.W., Cummins, C., Millo, G., and M. Mitchell (2018) lmtest: Testing Linear Regression Mod-els. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lmtest
Hurvich, C.M. and C.-L. Tsai (1995) Model Selection for Extended Quasi-Likelihood Models in Small Samples. Biometrics, v. 51, p. 1077-1084. https://doi.org/10.2307/2533006
Hyndman, R.J. and A.B. Koehler (2006) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, v.22, n.4, p.679-688. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001
Iding, M.H.E., Meester, W.J., and L.A. Tavasszy (2002) Freight trip generation by firms. In 42nd European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Dortmund, Germany.
Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., and J. Holguín-Veras (2015b) Identifying Freight Intermediaries: Implications for Modeling of Freight Trip Generation. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2478, p.48-56. https://doi.org/10.3141/2478-06
Jaller, M., Sánchez-Díaz, I., Holguín-Veras, J., and C.T. Lawson (2014) Area based freight trip generation models. In Transpor-tation Research Board (TRB) 93rd Annual Meeting, Washington, US.
Jaller, M., Wang, X., and J. Holguín-Veras (2015a) Large urban freight traffic generators: Opportunities for city logistics initia-tives. Journal of Transport and Land Use, v.8, n.1, p.1-17.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2015.406
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., and R. Tibshirani (2017) ISLR: Data for an Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applica-tions in R. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ISLR
Kulpa, T. (2014) Freight truck trip generation modeling at regional level. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, v. 111, p. 197-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.01.052
Lawson, C.T., Holguín-Veras, J., Sánchez-Diaz, I., Jaller, M., Campbell, S., and E.L. Powers (2012) Powers Estimated Generation of Freight Trips Based on Land Use. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, v.2269, p.65-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2269-08
Lim, H., Chin, S.M., Hwang, H.-L., and L.D. Han (2017) Incorporating Information Complexity into Regression-Based Freight Generation Model Selection. In Transportation Research Board (TRB) 97th Annual Meeting, Washington, US.
Maia, A.G. (2017) Econometria: conceitos e aplicações. Editora Saint Paul: São Paulo.
McCullagh, P. and J.A. Nelder (1989) Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall: London; New York.
Nuzzolo, A., Crisalli, U., and A. Comi. (2012) A delivery approach modelling for urban freight restocking. Journal of Civil Engi-neering and Architecture, v.6, n.3, p.251-267. http://dx.doi.org/10.17265/1934-7359/2012.03.001
Oliveira, L.K., Silva, A.S.S., Tolentino, A.C.M., Rachid, A.H.F.S., Bertoncini, B.V., Lima, J.H., Bracarense, L.S.F.P., and R.L.M. Oliveira (2018) Análise comparativa de técnicas de modelagem da geração de viagens de carga. Anais do XXXII Congresso Nacional de Ensino e Pesquisa em Transportes, Gramado, Brazil.
Oliveira, L.K., Nóbrega, R.A.A., Ebias, D.G., and B.G.S. Corrêa (2017) Analysis of Freight Trip Generation Model for Food and Beverage in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). Region, v.4, n.1, p.17-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.18335/region.v4i1.102
Oliveira, L.K., Oliveira, R.L.M, Ramos, C.M.F., and D.G. Ebias (2016) Modelo de geração de viagens de carga em áreas urbanas: um estudo para bares, restaurantes e supermercados. Transportes, v.2, n.24, p.53-67. https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v24i2.1058
Reis, P.I.A.M., Bracarense, L.S.F.P., and L.K. Oliveira (2018) Geração de viagens de veículos de carga por supermercados: Estudo aplicado a Palmas-TO. Anais do XXXII Congresso Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes. ANPET, Gramado, Brazil.
Rudani, H.R., Patel, V.F., and H.K. Dave (2017) Development of trip generation model for goods movement of Gozaria and Visnagar G.I.D.C. International Journal of Advance Engineering and Research Development, v.4, n.4, p.923-926
Sánchez-Días, I. (2017) Modeling urban freight generation: A study of commercial establishments’ freight needs. Transporta-tion Research Part A, v.102, p.3-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.035
Silva, M.R. and J. Waisman (2007) Cargas urbanas: estudo exploratório sobre a geração de viagens de caminhões em bares e restaurantes. Anais do 16 Congresso Brasileiro de Transporte e Trânsito, Maceió, Brazil.
Statista (2018) Value added of the construction industry as a share of gross domestic product in the U.S. from 2007 to 2017. https://www.statista.com/topics/974/construction/
Stevenson, W. J. (1981) Estatística aplicada à administração. Editora Harbra: São Paulo.
Washington, S., Karlaftis, F., and M. Mannering (2011) Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC: Boca Raton.
Wee, B.V. and D. Banister (2016) How to Write a Literature Review Paper? Transport Reviews, v.36, n.2, p.278-288. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2015.1065456
Zhang, D. (2018) Package ‘rsq’: R-squared and related measures. https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/rsq/rsq.pdf
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who submit papers for publication by TRANSPORTES agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant TRANSPORTES the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors may enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of this journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in TRANSPORTES.
- Authors are allowed and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) after publication of the article. Authors are encouraged to use links to TRANSPORTES (e.g., DOIs or direct links) when posting the article online, as TRANSPORTES is freely available to all readers.
- Authors have secured all necessary clearances and written permissions to published the work and grant copyright under the terms of this agreement. Furthermore, the authors assume full responsibility for any copyright infringements related to the article, exonerating ANPET and TRANSPORTES of any responsibility regarding copyright infringement.
- Authors assume full responsibility for the contents of the article submitted for review, including all necessary clearances for divulgation of data and results, exonerating ANPET and TRANSPORTES of any responsibility regarding to this aspect.
