O efeito de diferentes agregações dos níveis de severidade de acidentes com pedestres em áreas urbanas

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v30i3.2664

Palavras-chave:

Severidade das lesões, Atropelamentos, Modelo logit multinomial

Resumo

A promoção de um ambiente viário mais seguro para os pedestres requer uma compreensão dos fatores de risco associados às lesões sofridas por esses usuários enquanto envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito. Os níveis de lesões registrados pelos relatórios policiais podem estar sujeitos a viés e erros, especialmente nas categorias de lesões adjacentes e não extremas. O objetivo deste estudo é investigar o impacto de diferentes configurações de classificação da severidade na identificação de fatores relacionados a acidentes envolvendo pedestres em áreas urbanas. Modelos logit multinomiais foram estimados utilizando registros de acidentes da cidade de Fortaleza entre os anos de 2017 e 2019. Os resultados indicaram que a combinação de alguns níveis de severidade pode levar a diferentes variáveis ​​significativas e, portanto, dependendo da especificação da variável de resposta, a influência de importantes fatores de risco pode acabar sendo ignorada no modelo. Entre os fatores analisados, a idade dos pedestres, o dia da semana, o horário do acidente e o tipo de via permaneceram significativos para as diferentes configurações de níveis de gravidade. Além disso, o modelo com três categorias de gravidade (leve / moderada, grave e fatal) apresentou o melhor desempenho em termos de ajuste do modelo. Observou-se nesse modelo que fatores como idade avançada dos pedestres, acidentes no período noturno, com veículos pesados, nos finais de semana e localizados em vias com maior classificação viária estão associados a lesões mais graves.

 

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Referências

Abay, K. A. (2013) Examining pedestrian-injury severity using alternative disaggregate models. Research in Transportation Economics, , v. 43, n. 1, p. 123–136. DOI:10.1016/j.retrec.2012.12.002

Abrari Vajari, M.; Aghabayk, K.; Sadeghian, M.; Shiwakoti, N. (2020) A multinomial logit model of motorcycle crash severity at Australian intersections. Journal of Safety Research, v. 73, p. 17–24. DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2020.02.008

Agresti, A. (2006) An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis. 2.ed., New Jersey: Wiley.

Aziz, H; M. A.; Ukkusuri, S. V.; Hasan, S. (2013) Exploring the determinants of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in New York City. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 50, p. 1298–1309, 2013. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijtst.2018.10.001

Batouli, G.; Guo, M.; Janson, B.; Marshall, W. (2020) Analysis of pedestrian-vehicle crash injury severity factors in Colorado 2006–2016. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 148. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105782

Bhat, C. R.; Astroza, S. e Lavieri, P. S.(2017) A new spatial and flexible multivariate random-coefficients model for the analysis of pedestrian injury counts by severity level. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, v.16, p. 1- 22. DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2017.05.001

Bhatti, J. A.; Razzak, J. A.; Lagarde, E.; Salmi, L. R. (2011) Differences in police, ambulance, and emergency department reporting of traffic injuries on Karachi-Hala road, Pakistan. BMC Research Notes, v. 4. DOI: 10.1186/1756-0500-4-75

Belin, M. A.; Tillgren, P.; Vedung, E.. (2012) Vision Zero–a road safety policy innovation. International journal of injury control and safety promotion, v. 19, n. 2, p. 171-179. DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2011.635213

Broughton, J.; Keigan, M.; Yannis, G.; Evgenikos, P.;Chaziris, A.; Papadimitriou, E.; Bos, N. M.; Hoeglinger, S.; Pérez, K.; Amoros, E.; Holló, P.; Tecl, J. (2010) Estimation of the real number of road casualties in Europe. Safety Science, v. 48, n. 3, p. 365–371. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2009.09.012

Burdett, B.; Li, Z.; Bill, A. R. Noyce, D. A. (2015) Accuracy of Injury Severity Ratings on Police Crash Reports. Transportation Research Record, v. 2516, p. 58–67. DOI: 10.3141/2516-09

Casado-Sanz, N.; Guirao, B.; Attard, Maria. (2020) Analysis of the risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents on spanish crosstown roads: The driver’s perspective. Sustainability (Switzerland), v. 12, n. 6. DOI: 10.3390/su12062237

Chen, Z. e Fan, W. (2019). A multinomial logit model of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in North Carolina. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology, v. 8, n. 1, p. 43–52. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijtst.2018.10.001

Chen, S.; Zhang, S.; Xing, Y.; Lu, J. (2020) Identifying the factors contributing to the severity of truck-involved crashes in Shanghai rivercrossing tunnel. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, v. 17, n. 9. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17093155

Clifton, K. J.; Burnier, C. V. e Akar, G..(2009) Severity of injury resulting from pedestrian-vehicle crashes: What can we learn from examining the built environment? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, v. 14, n. 6, p. 425–436. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2009.01.001

Couto, A.; Amorim, M.; Ferreira, S. (2016) Reporting road victims: Assessing and correcting data issues through distinct injury scales. Journal of Safety Research, v. 57, p. 39–45. DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2016.03.008

Dong, C.; Khattak, A. J.; Shao, C.; Xie, K. (2019) Exploring the factors contribute to the injury severities of vulnerable roadway user involved crashes. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, v. 26, n. 3, p. 302–314. DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2019.1595665

Donmez, B. e Liu, Z.. (2015) Associations of distraction involvement and age with driver injury severities. Journal of Safety Research, v. 52, p. 23–28. DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2014.12.001

Dutta, B. e Vasudevan, V. (2017) Study on pedestrian risk exposure at unsignalized intersection in a country with extreme vehicle heterogeneity and poor lane discipline. Transportation Research Record, v. 2634, p. 69–77. DOI: 10.3141/2634-11

Eluru, N.;Bhat, C. R. e Hensher, D. A.(2008) A mixed generalized ordered response model for examining pedestrian and bicyclist injury severity level in traffic crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 40, n. 3, p. 1033–1054. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.11.010

Elvik, R., 2004. To what extent can theory account for the findings of road safety evaluation studies? Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 36, p. 841–849. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2003.08.003

Fagerland, M. W.; Hosmer, D. W. e Bofin, A. M. (2008) Multinomial goodness-of-fit tests for logistic regression models. Statistics in Medicine, v. 27, n. 21, p. 4238-4253. DOI: 10.1002/sim.3202

Ferreira, S.; Falcão, L.; Couto, A.; Amorim, M. (2015) The quality of the injury severity classification by the police: An important step for a reliable assessment. Safety Science, v. 79, p. 88–93. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.05.013

Ferreira, S.; Amorim, M.; Couto, A. (2017). Risk factors affecting injury severity determined by the MAIS score. Traffic Injury Prevention, v. 18, p. 1–29. DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2016.1246724

Garder, P. E. (2004) The impact of speed and other variables on pedestrian safety in Maine. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 36, n. 4, p. 533–542. DOI: 10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00059-9

Hausman, Jerry; McFadden, Daniel. (1984) Specification tests for the multinomial logit model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, p. 1219-1240. DOI: 10.2307/1910997

Highway safety manual. (2010) American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials: Washington, DC, USA.

Hussain, Q.; Feng, H.; Grzebieta, R.; Brijs, T.; Olivier, J. (2019) The relationship between impact speed and the probability of pedestrian fatality during a vehicle-pedestrian crash: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 129, n. January, p. 241–249. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.05.033

Imprialou, M; Quddus, M. (2019) Crash data quality for road safety research: Current state and future directions. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 130, n. 6, p. 84-90. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2017.02.022

Jang, Kitae; Park, Shin; Kang, Sanghyeok; Song, Ki Kang, Seungmo e Chung, Sungbong. (2013) Evaluation of pedestrian safety. Transportation Research Record, n. 2393, p. 104–116. DOI: 10.3141/2393-12

Kim, J. K.; Ulfarssom, G. F.; Shankar, V. N. e Mannering, F. L. (2010) A note on modeling pedestrian-injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes with the mixed logit model. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 42, n. 6, p. 1751–1758. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.04.016

Kwigizile, V.; Sando, T. e Chimba, D.. (2011) Inconsistencies of ordered and unordered probability models for pedestrian injury severity. Transportation Research Record, n. 2264, p. 110–118. DOI:10.3141/2264-13

Lee, C. e Abdel-Aty, M.. (2005) Comprehensive analysis of vehicle-pedestrian crashes at intersections in Florida. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 37, n. 4, p. 775–786. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.019

Li, D; Ranjitkar, P.; Zhao, Y.; Yi, H. e Rashidi, S. (2016). Analyzing pedestrian crash injury severity under different weather conditions. Traffic Injury Prevention,v.18, n.4, p. 427–430. DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2016.1207762

Li, Y.; Fan, W. D. (2019) Modelling severity of pedestrian-injury in pedestrian-vehicle crashes with latent class clustering and partial proportional odds model: A case study of North Carolina. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 131, p. 284–296. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.07.008

Manner, H. e Wünsch-Ziegler, L. (2013) Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 57, p. 40–48. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.022

Mannering, F. L.; Bhat, C. R. (2014) Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions. Analytic methods in accident research, v. 1, p. 1-22. DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2013.09.001

Mannering, F. L.; Shankar, V.; Bhat, C. R. (2016) Unobserved heterogeneity and the statistical analysis of highway accident data. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, v. 11, p. 1–16. DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2016.04.001

McDonald, G. e Davie, G. e Langley, J. (2009) Validity of police-reported information on injury severity for those hospitalized from motor vehicle traffic crashes. Traffic Injury Prevention, v. 10, n. 2, p. 184–190. DOI: 10.1080/15389580802593699

Ortúzar, J. D e Willumsen, L. G. Modelling Transport. 4ed. Wiley, 2011.

Peduzzi, P. N.; Concato, J.; Kemper, E.; Holford, T. R. e Feinstein, A. (1996). A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, v.99, p. 1373–1379. DOI: 10.1016/s0895-4356(96)00236-3

Pour-Rouholamin, M, e Zhou, H.. (2016) Investigating the risk factors associated with pedestrian injury severity in Illinois. Journal of Safety Research, v. 57, p. 9–17. DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2016.03.004

Rosén, E.; Stigson, H. e Sander, U.. (2011) Literature review of pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 43, n. 1, p. 25–33. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2010.04.003

Rosenbloom, T. (2009) Crossing at a red light: Behaviour of individuals and groups. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, v. 12, n. 5, p. 389–394. DOI:10.1016/j.trf.2009.05.002

Rothman, L.; Howard, A. W.; Camden, A.; Macarthur, C. (2012) Pedestrian crossing location influences injury severity in urban áreas. Injury Prevention, v. 18, n.6, p. 365-370. DOI:10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040246

Salum, J. H.; Kitali, A. E.; Bwire, H.; Sando, T.; Alluri, P. (2019). Severity of motorcycle crashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Traffic Injury Prevention, p. 189–195. DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2018.1544706

Savolainen, P. T.; Mannering, F. L.; Lord, D. e Quddus, M. A. (2011) The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 43, n. 5, p. 1666–1676. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.025

Shinar, D. (2017). Traffic safety and human behavior (2ª ed). Emerald Group Publishing.

Sze, N. N. e Wong, S. C. (2007) Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury s

everity in traffic crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 39, n. 6, p. 1267–1278. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2007.03.017

Sun, M.; Sun, X. e Shan, D. (2019) Pedestrian crash analysis with latent class clustering method. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 124, n. June 2018, p. 50–57. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2018.12.016

Tay, R.; Choi, J.; Kattan, L. e Khan, A. (2011). A multinomial logit model of pedestrian–vehicle crash severity. International journal of sustainable transportation, v. 5, n. 4, p. 233-249. DOI:10.1016/j.ijtst.2018.10.001

Torres, C.; Sobreira, L.; Castro-Neto, M.; Cunto, F.; Vecino-Ortiz, A.; Allen, K.; Hyder, A e Bachani, A. (2020) Evaluation of Pedestrian Behavior on Mid-block Crosswalks: A Case Study in Fortaleza—Brazil. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, v.2, p. 1 – 6. DOI:10.3389/frsc.2020.00003

Tsui, K. L.; So, F. L.; Sze, N. N.; Wong, S. C.; Leung, T. F. (2009) Misclassification of injury severity among road casualties in police reports. Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 41, p. 84 – 89. DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2008.09.005

Uddin, M. e Ahmed, F. (2018) Pedestrian injury severity analysis in motor vehicle crashes in Ohio. Safety, v. 4, n. 2, p. 0–10. DOI:10.3390/safety4020020

Wang, Y. Y.; Haque, M. M.; Chin, H. C. eYun, J. G. J. (2013) Injury severity of pedestrian crashes in Singapore. Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2013 – Proceedings.

Washington, P. S.; Karlaftis G. M. e Mannering F. L. (2003) Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Nova Iorque, 2003.

Welle, B. et al (2018). Sustainable and safe - Vision and Guidelines for Zero Traffic Deaths. World Resources Institute, Washington.

Working group on serious road traffic casualties. (2010) Reporting on Serious Road Traffic Casualties. p. 107.

World Health Organization. (2008). Speed management: a road safety manual for decision-makers and practitioners.

Zafri, N. M.; Prithul, A. A.; Baral, I.; Rahman, M. (2020) Exploring the factors influencing pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Dhaka, Bangladesh. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, v. 27, n. 3, p. 300–307. DOI:10.1080/17457300.2020.1774618

Downloads

Publicado

11-10-2022

Como Citar

Nogueira Silva, M., Craveiro Cunto, F. J. ., & Timbó Lima Gomes, M. J. . (2022). O efeito de diferentes agregações dos níveis de severidade de acidentes com pedestres em áreas urbanas. TRANSPORTES, 30(3). https://doi.org/10.14295/transportes.v30i3.2664

Edição

Seção

Artigos